After eight years, President Buhari will step down and Nigerians will elect a successor on February 25. Much is at stake for Africa’s largest economy, so who will this successor be?
We’ll share Nigeria’s 2023 election results live from the 36 states (and the FCT) across the country, including data and insight you won't find anywhere else.
On March 11th, we’ll also provide live results on the gubernatorial elections holding in 28 out of 36 states.
Read this blog for all real-time election results.
Why Kwara state matters during Nigeria's Presidential elections
Kwara, in Nigeria's North Central region, has an outstanding record of predicting the winner of the presidential election since 1979.
To know where Kwara swings ahead of the polls that commence in roughly 15 hours, Stears boosted six samples across states, including Kwara. Each with a 500-strong sample enabled us to make statistically valid conclusions.
Our result from Kwara is a departure from the consensus among pollsters that Obi would win the election.
But there are reasons Kwara’s winning candidate is different from consensus and factors—which haven't changed—that have led to the state's kingmaker title for over 40 years.
So, as Nigerians head out to this high-stakes poll, read about the parallels between the 1979 and 2023 presidential elections.
For live updates and results on the elections, download the Stears App [https://onelink.to/uu49gu]
To know where Kwara swings ahead of the polls that commence in roughly 15 hours, Stears boosted six samples across states, including Kwara. Each with a 500-strong sample enabled us to make statistically valid conclusions.
Our result from Kwara is a departure from the consensus among pollsters that Obi would win the election.
But there are reasons Kwara’s winning candidate is different from consensus and factors—which haven't changed—that have led to the state's kingmaker title for over 40 years.
So, as Nigerians head out to this high-stakes poll, read about the parallels between the 1979 and 2023 presidential elections.
For live updates and results on the elections, download the Stears App [https://onelink.to/uu49gu]
2023 PVC collection increased to 93% from 87% in 2019
With the 2023 elections underway, Nigerians appear enthusiastic to vote on election day, backed up by increased voter participation.
The Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) reports that 87 million of the 93 million Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) registered have been collected, representing a 93% collection rate.
This is much higher than 2019's 82% collection rate, which saw 72 million PVCs collected out of 84 million registered users.
Simply put, uncollected PVCs have decreased from nearly 15 million in 2019 to just over 6 million in 2023.
This increases the likelihood of a greater turnout on election day but does not guarantee one—Nigeria's voter turnout has consistently reduced from 69% in 2003 to 35% in 2019.
The Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) reports that 87 million of the 93 million Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) registered have been collected, representing a 93% collection rate.
This is much higher than 2019's 82% collection rate, which saw 72 million PVCs collected out of 84 million registered users.
Simply put, uncollected PVCs have decreased from nearly 15 million in 2019 to just over 6 million in 2023.
This increases the likelihood of a greater turnout on election day but does not guarantee one—Nigeria's voter turnout has consistently reduced from 69% in 2003 to 35% in 2019.
Labour Party senatorial candidate, Barr. Oyibo Chukwu, killed in Enugu
The assassination of Labour Party candidate for the Enugu East senatorial district election, Barrister Oyibo Chukwu occurred yesterday. He was killed on his return from a campaign event.
This brings into focus the issue of election violence, especially as all 18 parties signed a peace accord in Abuja yesterday with President Buhari in attendance.
Data from the Stears Electoral poll indicates that 5% of South-East respondents feel ‘unsafe’ or ‘very unsafe’ in going to vote, but this event may impact those perceptions negatively and turnout at the polls.
Section 34 of the Electoral Act 2022 says that if a candidate for legislative election dies, the party can conduct a fresh primary within 14 days. INEC can suspend the election for not more than 21 days.
With less than two days to the election, it would not be surprising if the Enugu East senate election was postponed.
Read late Barrister Chukwu's bio here.
With less than two days to the election, it would not be surprising if the Enugu East senate election was postponed.
Read late Barrister Chukwu's bio here.
Presidential campaigns conclude with home based grand rallies
Ahead of the 2023 presidential elections this Saturday, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) has mandated all political parties to round off all campaign activities by midnight of February 23, 2023.
To improve their chances of success, candidates typically end their campaigns with grand rallies in their strongest regions—their home states. Atiku ended his campaign with a rally in Adamawa, Tinubu replicated the same in Lagos, while Kwankwaso plans to follow suit in Kano.
How will this all translate to success?
We will monitor the results closely on election day, showing you live updates and insights.
3 unexpected events to prepare for on election day
Having seen all the polls and projections, we now keenly await election day results. Yet, elections are subject to change very quickly. Enter, wildcards.
Let’s start with the currency redesign, which is really a demonetisation policy. The resulting cash crunch has increased economic hardship in Nigeria's cash-based economy. In particular, the North-West and North-East regions, home to the highest proportion of unbanked Nigerians have been disproportionately affected. How will this "last-minute" policy change impact the elections results?
Second, the Nigerian constitution's stance on a run-off election in Section 134 isn’t clear. This Stears article clears up the confusion, but can the media and other public voices explain the terms to Nigerians during the frenzy if there’s a run-off?
Finally, security or the lack of it, plays a critical role in voter turnout on election day, as the presence of the Armed Forces could deter voter suppression.
We’ll keep monitoring these wildcards and keep you updated.
2023 elections: How will Kwankwaso influence Kano state's votes?
It’s the first time in two decades that Nigerians will head to the polls and won’t see President Buhari on the ballot.
With this change, many are left wondering where his voters, especially those from Kano—the state that produced the most votes in the 2019 Presidential election—would swing.
Kano is expected to be hotly contested, particularly because its ex-governor Rabiu Kwankwaso is a candidate in the race.
As analysed in this Stears piece, his presence on the ballot can scuttle the chances of more nationally popular candidates in the state and, by extension, the North-West region.
In the same vein, withdrawing from the race for any of the more popular candidates could bolster their chances of emerging victorious.
We will monitor the results closely on election day, so follow our races here to receive insights and live updates.
With this change, many are left wondering where his voters, especially those from Kano—the state that produced the most votes in the 2019 Presidential election—would swing.
Kano is expected to be hotly contested, particularly because its ex-governor Rabiu Kwankwaso is a candidate in the race.
As analysed in this Stears piece, his presence on the ballot can scuttle the chances of more nationally popular candidates in the state and, by extension, the North-West region.
In the same vein, withdrawing from the race for any of the more popular candidates could bolster their chances of emerging victorious.
We will monitor the results closely on election day, so follow our races here to receive insights and live updates.
What is the importance of polling agents during elections?
Yesterday, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released a summary of Polling Unit and Collation Centre Agents submitted by Political Parties for the 2023 elections.
The PDP has the most with 176,588 agents, the APC follows with 176,223 , NNPP has 176,200, and Labour Party has 134,874 agents.
But why are agents important?
Agents monitor voting at various polling units of the country for their respective parties. Their presence is necessary for transparency and to prevent any form of malpractice.
Also, agents symbolise nationwide political membership and participation, a feature of party structure which needs huge resources for winning elections. For instance, at least three party agents cover each polling unit nationwide during elections. And on election day, they are often given financial incentives, say, ₦5,000 per person.
Essentially, agents are part of a political party’s structure, and parties need resources to build a solid structure.
Access more elections insights and visualisations here.
What role will the South East play in the 2023 elections?
Stears Polls show that Nigeria’s South-East region has the highest proportion (89%) of respondents more interested in this election than previous ones.
This is a significant shift from previous election years, where the South-East voter turnout has been low and declining.
This is a significant shift from previous election years, where the South-East voter turnout has been low and declining.
Voter turnout in the South-East has been low and declining. Stears
But recent polling data suggests the region might surprise Nigerians this time around.
South-East voters are the least satisfied with the country's direction, with 67% saying Nigeria is going in a negative direction, the highest from our countrywide survey.
This region is home to the most popular presidential candidate, signaling an ability to meet the two conditions—win majority of the votes and 25% of votes in 24 states—to be the next president of Nigeria.
But the South East has only five states, the smallest among other regions and the smallest number of registered voters.
Keen eyes are on Nigeria’s south-eastern region and its contribution to the level of votes on Feb 25, 2023.
Keen eyes are on Nigeria’s south-eastern region and its contribution to the level of votes on Feb 25, 2023.
Two predictions for the 2023 general elections
1. The performance of Nigeria's "ruling party", the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the last eight years has left Nigerians fed up.
As a result, more than 50% of Nigerians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction and are willing to put their votes where their mouth is.
As a result a majority of Nigerians will be voting for a different party, which might signal their desire for a change from the status quo.
As a result, more than 50% of Nigerians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction and are willing to put their votes where their mouth is.
As a result a majority of Nigerians will be voting for a different party, which might signal their desire for a change from the status quo.
2. Nigeria’s ruling party candidate has a strong hold in one of the country’s most populous states, Lagos.
However, Stears polls predicts that this strong force will amount to 32% of the votes for the ruling party’s candidate.
However, Stears polls predicts that this strong force will amount to 32% of the votes for the ruling party’s candidate.
In contrast, the main opposition party (PDP) will get 7% of votes while the Labour party could secure as much as 44% of votes in Lagos.
Predicted vote outcomes. Stears
On this note, this blog is closing for the day.
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What is the timetable for Nigeria’s 2023 general elections?
Much has gone into consideration by the Independent National Electoral Commission to prepare for Nigeria’s 2023 elections. And barring any postponement, in 7 days, Nigerians will head to the polls to elect their next president, vice president, and federal lawmakers.
Before then, politicians are still expected to continue campaigning until next Thursday, 23rd February 2023.
Read our explainer for a full breakdown of what to expect as election day draws to a close.
Which states will predict Nigeria’s next President?
Over time, Nigeria's North-Central region has emerged as a swing region in Nigerian presidential politics. The reasons for this are the region’s religious and ethnic diversity, which are a direct consequence of its history.
In addition, those who won the northcentral states ended up winning the presidential election.
In 1999, the PDP won the presidency by leading with votes in 27 states, including all six states of the North-Central.
In 2003, the PDP won all the states in the North-Central again, with 62% of the total votes in the region.
In 2011, PDP secured 65% of the votes in the North Central and, with it, the overall victory.
By 2015, the PDP’s hold on the region started to slip. The APC and Buhari won 58% of the vote and four of six North Central states, leading them to the current eight-year victory.
The North-Central tends to vote for the winner of the presidential election. Will this continue in 2023?
Stears' article "Why Nigeria's middle belt can predict its next President" has answers.
The North-Central tends to vote for the winner of the presidential election. Will this continue in 2023?
Stears' article "Why Nigeria's middle belt can predict its next President" has answers.
Do you know Nigeria’s 2023 presidential candidates?
On 25 February, barring any last-minute postponement by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigerians will elect one of the 18 2023 presidential candidates as their new president.
Recent attempts to amend the constitution to allow for independent candidacy (allowing politicians to run for office without being sponsored by a political party) did not pass, meaning these candidates will be members of one of the 18 registered political parties.
The top candidates are well-known and have met the qualifications.
By exploring the Stears Elections database, you can track nearly 30,000 candidates to find previous election winners and losers, determine their track record, and follow current results during election season.
By exploring the Stears Elections database, you can track nearly 30,000 candidates to find previous election winners and losers, determine their track record, and follow current results during election season.
As a teaser, here is the final list of the 2023 presidential candidates and their profiles:
18. Zenith Labour Party (ZLP): Dan Nwanyanwu
How will Nigerians vote in the 2023 presidential elections?
In Nigeria, many voters typically refuse to indicate their voting preferences, especially when polled.
As such, Stears designed a model to infer Nigeria’s voting behaviour based on other information beyond voting preferences that 6,000+ nationally represented Nigerians provided.
The outcome of this exercise for the presidential elections can be distilled in one point: The presidential election winner will be based on turnout scenarios.
The Stears electoral poll and prediction model indicates that Peter Obi is Nigeria’s most popular presidential candidate and should win the presidential ticket as long as Nigerians follow through on their stated intent to vote.
Stears model predicts a Peter Obi victory in high turnout scenario. Stears
But, if voter turnout looks similar to 2019, Tinubu will win the election.
Stears model predicts comfortable Tinubu victory if voter turnout is low. Stears
With the innovative predictive model on electoral polls, Stears Insights has provided information to help Nigerians make informed decisions on election day.
Countdown to Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Elections
Thank you for reading the Stears live blog!
Here, you will find useful updates about the upcoming 2023 presidential and national assembly elections scheduled for February 25th.
But before election day, expect to see a rundown of data, analysis and bite-sized insights from three core areas:
- Stears polls: Predictive analysis of polling results administered to Nigerians in anticipation of the 2023 presidential elections.
- Stears’ governance articles: Stories that show you how government works and why it fails.
- Stears Explainers: Short-form explainers to help you make sense of key election issues.
To get live results for the 2023 elections, download the Stears App [https://onelink.to/uu49gu] via mobile.